Consumer demand continued to grow in August and the first week of September
Leading indicators of consumer demand state record its continued growth in August and the first week of September (in annual terms). Thus, according to Sberindex, total nominal spending on Sber cards increased by 13.1% in August, and real (taking into account inflation) by 3.6% in annual terms. Real spending on non-food products increased by 6.2% in August, on food by 4.1%, on catering by 6%, on services by 2.1%. The authors of these estimates note that this summer, in general, the growth rate of household spending slowed somewhat due to a decrease in spending on services (in particular, on tourism) and a slower increase in spending on non-food products.
In a monthly comparison to July, taking into account inflation and seasonal factors, consumption in August fell by 0.1% (in all groups of goods and services, this happened almost synchronously). The authors of the study note that this is the weakest indicator since 2015 and that spending usually shows significant growth in the last month of summer.
It should be noted that, based on Rosstat data, the Ministry of Economy and the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting estimated an increase in household consumer spending in July by 0.4%, taking into account seasonality, by June 2024 (see Kommersant of August 29). “It is too early to talk about a sustainable decline — the population could have reduced non-food spending after significant spending in July,” the authors of Sberindex note.
At the same time, during the week from September 2 to September 8, the annual dynamics of the Sberindex index accelerated due to almost all main types of consumption (except services; see chart) and remained practically at the August level (13.4% versus 13.6%). In real terms, the growth in spending exceeded the August figure by 4.2%. However, at the same time, a weekly decrease in total spending by 2.9% was recorded due to non-food products and services. According to the ROMIR study (data from purchase receipts of 40 thousand people in 240 cities and towns), the nominal volume of consumption of the population for the same week increased by 2.4% (by 23.2% in annual terms). "Despite the growth in weekly spending, the average receipt for the same period decreased. Russians began to make purchases more often, choosing more budget-friendly goods and goods with more attractive promotions," ROMIR notes.
