Commerce paused – Business – Kommersant

The negative informational background of the last week led to the suppression of consumer sentiment: analysts predict a decrease in traffic in shopping centers, pointing to the lack of desire among Russians to make emotional purchases. This has already put on pause part of the negotiations on the lease of space. In the street retail segment, the leaders in terms of the number of transactions were tobacco shops, the active development of which is associated with psychological stress in society. In the office market, low tenant activity contributes to discounts.

The tense news background and the complicated geopolitical situation may lead to a decrease in attendance at shopping centers in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Such a forecast is formulated by Mikhail Vasiliev, head of research and consulting at Focus Technologies. Periods of general uncertainty, according to him, have recently stimulated Russian consumers to cut costs, many are not ready to buy. The head of the Russian Auction House, Natalia Kruglova, also sees a negative trend: “We expect failure in all segments, except for those occupied by discounters.” Consumers now don’t have the holiday spirit that always accompanies extra spending on non-essential items, she says.

Trading shock

The expected suppression of consumer activity and a decrease in traffic in shopping centers will replace the rather successful first half of September. Mall Index (reflects the number of visitors per 1 thousand sq. m) in shopping centers Moscow in the week of September 12–18 lagged behind the indicator for the same period in 2021 and amounted to 14%, in St. Petersburg – 13%. In summer, the same gap was estimated at 20–25%. “We saw the traditional seasonal peak in consumer activity, dictated by the beginning of the school year and the new business season,” explains Mikhail Vasiliev.

Now the general uncertainty, according to Mr. Vasiliev’s forecasts, will also oppress the activity of potential tenants: many chains will revise or suspend plans to open new stores. Although at the moment, according to the observations of Development Director of Key Capital Evelina Ishmetova, the vacancy in the shopping centers has stabilized: “All those who wanted to announce their resignation have already announced.” News about partial mobilization, according to her, did put on pause part of the ongoing negotiations, but did not lead to a shock. RRG Managing Partner Denis Kolokolnikov believes that Russian fashion retailers are now taking an active position in finding new areas and developing formats.

In the street retail segment, the most active tenants in the third quarter, according to commercial director of R4S Group Irina Burenko, were tobacco shops. “This is an indirect sign of a high level of stress in society: in the second quarter, tobacco shops were not among the top three,” she said. The second and third places among the categories of tenants active on shopping streets are occupied by coffee shops and grocery stores. Ms. Burenko expects that the experience of the last two years has formed a fairly high resistance to crisis situations on the street retail market. This may allow him to maintain a stable picture of the third quarter, the expert does not exclude.

Office recalculation

in the office market Moscow According to the results of the third quarter, the share of vacant premises will increase, amounting to 12.0-12.5% ​​in Class A and 6.5% in Class B, Maria Zimina, Director of the Office Real Estate Department at Knight Frank, cites this estimate. The expert states that the activity of potential sellers and buyers has decreased this year and the situation is unlikely to improve before the end of the year. Against this background, Ms. Zimina predicts a further increase in the share of vacant space. Kirill Babichenko, head of the CORE.XP owner services department, does not rule out that due to a new round of political and social tension, many will suspend the current processes of renting or buying offices – this may negatively affect the results of the fourth quarter and the year as a whole.

Inactive demand and growing vacancy contribute to a decrease in average prices for office real estate.

Kirill Babichenko points out that class A offices in Moscow are now rented out at an average price of 28,000 rubles. per sq. m per year, class B – 19.2 thousand rubles. per sq. m year. Relative to the second quarter, the values ​​decreased by 2.0% and 1.5%, respectively. Maria Zimina adds that premium offices for the quarter fell by 2.2% to 44.92 thousand rubles. per sq. m per year.

In St. Petersburg, according to Victoria Goryacheva, director of the office real estate department at Nikoliers, an increase in vacancy is now noticeable against the background of the commissioning of a new volume and the entry into the market of vacant offices of IT companies. The increase in the share of vacant space, according to expert forecasts, will continue, but will not be critical for the market. Similar trends were noticed by the director of the department of office real estate Knight Frank St. Petersburg Regina Voloshenko, stating that the owners of buildings with high vacancy are now offering potential tenants discounts of up to 10%. New offices are now being selected by companies in the oil and gas and logistics sectors, she adds. “The share of vacant supply in the office market in St. Petersburg by the end of the year may exceed 10%, but these areas are unevenly distributed: there are completely empty buildings or buildings where 50% of the space or more is empty,” says Ms. Voloshenko.

Alexandra Mertsalova