Citizens mobilized personal finances - Newspaper Kommersant No. 181 (7382) of 09/30/2022

Citizens mobilized personal finances - Newspaper Kommersant No. 181 (7382) of 09/30/2022



Demand for microloans dropped noticeably after the announcement of partial mobilization in Russia. Moreover, the decline affected all categories of clients, and not just those who could potentially be subject to mobilization. Companies also note a decline in the quality of borrowers. However, experts are confident that the negative trends in the market will last for a couple of months, as the industry will quickly adapt to new shock conditions.

Demand for microloans dropped significantly after the announcement of partial mobilization in Russia on September 21, a survey of microfinance organizations showed. According to Roman Makarov, General Director of IFC Zaimer, the number of applications for loans received over the past seven days is 10% lower than in the same period in August, and compared to September 2021, it is 9% lower.

“Starting from September 21, we see a decrease in demand by 12%. We also observed a short-term deterioration in the quality of customers,” said Moneyman Marketing Director Andrey Greznev.

“The number of clients applying for a loan to offices decreased by 14% compared to the same seasonal dynamics last year,” confirms the trend, Eqvanta Group Risk Director Ion Boloboshencu. Some companies are seeing a significant reduction in the share of loans repaid ahead of schedule. “If in the week from September 14 to September 20 it reached 31%, then from September 21 to September 27 it was only 17%,” Andrey Ponomarev, CEO of the financial online platform Webbankir, gives an example.

In October, we should expect a significant slowdown in the market, according to its participants, including against the backdrop of tougher scoring by creditors to avoid defaults. At the same time, demand will decrease. “In October, we expect a decrease in issuance by at least 15%,” Leonid Kornilov, chairman of the board of directors of the fintech group Finbridge, estimates.

The reason is high uncertainty, when people are afraid to plan. Russians have long been living in austerity mode. But the mobilization - a new shock - has changed the usual behavior of customers, says Ion Boloboshencu. Moreover, all surveyed companies say that these trends affect borrowers of all ages and any gender. Some borrowers potentially subject to partial mobilization are afraid to leave their homes and once again leave their data on the Internet, market participants believe (for the degree of validity of these fears, see the text on pages 1-10). Clients who are not directly affected by the mobilization are afraid of loss of income, rising prices for consumer goods, further deterioration of the economic situation in the country and, as a result, they also cease to be interested in borrowed funds, since they cannot predict their income even for the near future, participants are sure market.

According to the National Bureau of Credit Histories, in August, the largest share of MFI borrowers fell on Russians aged 30 to 39 years - 36.4%. In addition, borrowers aged 40 to 49 accounted for 18.3%. At the same time, the share of borrowers aged 25 to 29 was 16.7%.

At the same time, according to the results of a survey conducted by the Unicom ecosystem, the mobilization did not significantly affect the consumer preferences of Russians. Approximately 55% of respondents are ready to apply for a loan this year, while maintaining rates and the financial situation.

At the same time, the share of those who are ready to take on a significant burden in the form of mortgages and car loans has decreased.

If at the beginning of the year every second person allowed this possibility, now this share has decreased to 30-35%. The main reason is the inability to predict the level of income in the future 5-10 years, Unicom experts say. The growth of uncertainty and new rules from the regulator will require MFIs to make changes to the standard models, says Mark Savichenko, chief analyst at Ivolga Capital. At the same time, he notes that, according to the experience of previous shock periods, "the market will need one to two months to get used to the new conditions."

Polina Trifonova



Source link