Borrowers tuned in to the market – Newspaper Kommersant No. 171 (7372) dated 16.09.

Banks are increasing the issuance of mortgages under state programs, but the share of new loans issued under such programs is gradually decreasing, in August it amounted to less than a third. Demand for state programs may grow by the end of the year due to the completion of subsidized mortgages for housing in new buildings at 7% per annum.

In August, the share of preferential mortgages amounted to 32% of all mortgage loans issued per month, follows from the calculations of Dom.RF JSC (available to Kommersant). It decreases from May 48% (refinanced loans through an additional agreement to the current agreement are not taken into account in the calculation). In total, about 42,000 preferential loans worth 221.9 billion rubles were issued in August. In monetary terms, the result of August was the highest since the beginning of 2021. At the same time, in the segment of preferential programs, preferential mortgages for new buildings at 7% still prevail – it accounted for over 60% of the volume and number of loans.

For the first time since March, the mortgage market in terms of issuances has moved to growth yoy, having increased by 6% by August 2021, according to the Dom.RF analytical center. According to their forecast, by the end of 2022, more than 460,000 loans totaling RUB 2.2–2.3 trillion will be issued under preferential programs. According to the results of January-August 2022, 283 thousand loans worth 1.2 trillion rubles were issued under state programs.

A significant part of the demand for preferential programs has already been realized, says Anton Pavlov, deputy chairman of the board of Absolut Bank. “But to say that it is exhausted is premature. Now the market of the Tuesday mortgage is recovering. On the one hand, it will pull back part of the demand. On the other hand, apartment sellers are returning to the market, most of which will invest the proceeds from the sale in the purchase of new real estate, including under state programs,” he said. Then, the banker continues, studies show that the level of housing provision in Russia remains at a low level and about 50% of families with children need to improve their living conditions, so the potential audience for state programs is large, although “due to the stagnation of income and rising property values most families cannot get mortgages.”

Starting in April, preferential state programs have significantly lost their influence on the monthly issuance of mortgages, because many banks staged a “race of subsidized programs”, separate from state ones and, as a rule, implemented jointly with developers, where declared interest rates are about 1% or lower, notes chief expert of “Rusipoteka” Sergey Gordeiko. In such programs, a low rate is provided by increasing the cost per square meter, he explains. “Against the background of rates of 1%, even preferential programs do not look so attractive,” says Mr. Gordeiko. The average mortgage rate in the primary market, according to the Central Bank, was 3.73% in July. This suggests that the share of mortgage programs subsidized by banks and developers was so large that the average rate in the primary market fell even below the level of rates for preferential programs, Sergey Gordeyko explains. “We see a trend towards a significant increase in apartment purchases under programs to subsidize rates by developers,” agrees Anton Pavlov. The share of disbursements under such programs in August amounted to 70%.

Another reason for the decrease in the share of preferential programs, says Mr. Gordeiko, is that the share of those who buy apartments for investment purposes has fallen significantly.

In the future, the trend may change. Demand for preferential programs in the third and fourth quarters may increase due to the termination of some of them, Anton Pavlov believes. So, at the end of the year, the program of preferential mortgages for new buildings at 7% per annum, launched in the spring of 2020, should be completed. Within the framework of standard mortgage programs, growth will mainly take place in the secondary real estate segment, says Mr. Pavlov. “Gradually, the issuance here is growing – this is due to an increase in the number of proposals, as well as the fact that the cost of secondary housing is now 10–20% lower than new buildings,” he explains.

Olga Sherunkova