Bankruptcies broke out of the moratorium – Newspaper Kommersant No. 186 (7387) of 10/07/2022
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According to the results of nine months of 2022, it can be stated that the total moratorium on bankruptcy, which was in effect from April 1 to October 1, gave a respite to all categories of debtors. The number of bankrupt citizens, however, continued to grow, but almost twice as slowly as last year. The introduction of new bankruptcy procedures in relation to legal entities-debtors decreased by 30%. Lawyers predict a wave of bankruptcies in 2023-2024 if the state and business “do not lend each other a shoulder.” Only in the first five days after the lifting of the moratorium, creditors announced their intention to bankrupt almost 2.5 thousand of their debtors, which is comparable to the figures for a whole month.
The Federal Resource presented the statistics of bankruptcies in Russia for January-September 2022. The growth rate of consumer bankruptcy almost halved: the number of citizens declared bankrupt by the court increased by 41.2% compared to the same period in 2021 (last year, the increase by 2020 exceeded 78%).
In nine months, 192.14 thousand people were declared bankrupt, and since October 2015, 669.3 thousand Russians have become bankrupt.
As before, citizens often go bankrupt themselves (96.1% of cases), in 2.7% of cases this is done by their creditors and in 1.2% by tax authorities. The growth in applications to the MFC for out-of-court bankruptcy amounted to 42.3%, and 3.65 thousand citizens were able to complete the procedure and write off debts (up to 500 thousand rubles) in 2022.
Unlike consumer bankruptcies, corporate bankruptcies decreased, however, by only 2.4% (to 7.23 thousand) compared to January-September 2021. The main part of corporate bankruptcies fell on Moscow (1.54 thousand companies), the Moscow region (615) and St. Petersburg (562). Sergey Lisin, a partner at BGP Litigation, notes that bankruptcy of companies is in most cases introduced as a result of an observation procedure that lasts up to 12 months, that is, these cases were initiated last year.
The consequence of the moratorium was a drop in the number of monitoring procedures for nine months by 30.6% and a reduction in the number of creditors’ intentions to file for bankruptcy of their debtors by three times (up to 7982 pieces).
In addition, the tax authorities began to show more initiative: they initiated the bankruptcy of legal entities in 24.1% of cases (an increase of 7.8%). Maxim Stepanchuk, partner of KA Delcredere, expects activity from the tax authorities even after the lifting of the moratorium: “The budget of the Russian Federation becomes scarce, so the tax service needs to put more effort into filling it. In this regard, the Federal Tax Service will fight both in bankruptcy cases and in out-of-bankruptcy subsidies, if there is nothing to take from the bankrupt itself.
Deputy Economy Minister Ilya Torosov believes that the moratorium helped “prevent some panic” and “give those in difficulty time to stabilize their activities.” Alexey Yukhnin, head of the Federal Resource, hopes that “like last time, the effect of the moratorium will be long-lasting and after its completion there will be no significant increase in the number of bankruptcies.”
However, the majority of lawyers interviewed by Kommersant consider a wave of bankruptcies inevitable in the near future after the moratorium, which expired on October 1.
“We expect an increase in applications, at least by 15-20% in the coming months,” says Rimma Malinska, partner in MEF Legal’s dispute resolution practice. Orchards law firm advisor Azat Akhmetov expects an “explosive growth” in bankruptcy cases in the fourth quarter and in 2023, estimating an increase in the number of applications in the most optimistic scenario for legal entities by 30-50%, for citizens – by 20-30%. Alexey Khorokhordin, First Deputy Chairman of the Board of Zenit Bank, also predicts an increase in bankruptcy applications in November-December 2022, but the bank itself “does not plan to initiate legal proceedings in connection with the lifting of the moratorium.”
The likely “flurry” is also hinted at by the number of messages from creditors about their intention to bankrupt their debtors. From October 2 and as of 16:00 on October 6, the number of such notifications reached almost 2.5 thousand, most of which were filed in relation to legal entities (2205) and individual entrepreneurs (183). For comparison, in 2021, for the whole of October, 2,306 notifications were filed for legal entities.
Banks are cautious in assessing this phenomenon. The fact that the notification is published does not mean that all of them will result in the initiation of bankruptcy cases, since part of the debts can be settled before the court, says Vadim Mesilov, a lawyer at Tochka Bank. The PSB considers this the result of a “deferred request for bankruptcy proceedings”, but expects that in the future the number of messages “will decrease”.
Rimma Malinskaya notes that all sectors of the economy are subject to the risk of bankruptcy, except for those supported by the state (defense industry, IT-spheres, etc.).
Mr. Akhmetov admits the possibility of bankruptcy of large enterprises and even entire industrial groups “taking into account the overall accumulated negative effect from the coronavirus and the sanctions of 2022.” Maxim Stepanchuk adds that such factors as partial mobilization, the departure of an active and solvent population abroad, a drop in demand and supply in different markets will also affect the position of the business.
The chief analyst of RegBlock, Anna Avakimyan, expects at least 8,000 bankruptcies to be initiated in October, 70% of them in relation to legal entities. Independent expert Andrei Barkhota calls the figure 10,000, believing that serious negative consequences can be avoided if economic support measures are implemented in the fourth quarter, including an increase in government orders, the creation of fiscal incentives and jobs. In the absence of state support, he predicts, we should expect several waves of bankruptcies of businesses and individuals, then a fall in bank lending due to the lack of suitable borrowers, and further operating losses at banks.
According to Sergey Lisin, “the February and September factors can significantly change all previous business approaches in Russia, including bankruptcy.” He does not exclude that business and the state can “shoulder” each other and in this case the number of bankruptcies in 2023 will decrease, “if not, the wave will turn into a tsunami by 2024.”
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