And “tomorrow” was the yuan - Newspaper Kommersant No. 50 (7495) of 03/24/2023

And “tomorrow” was the yuan - Newspaper Kommersant No. 50 (7495) of 03/24/2023



Russia's strategic course towards the yuanization of foreign trade activity has borne new fruits. The volume of exchange trades in the yuan with delivery "tomorrow" exceeded the total volume of trades in the dollar (with delivery "today" and "tomorrow") and approached the maximum since the beginning of the year. Exporters for settlements with the budget are increasingly selling Chinese currency than the currencies of "unfriendly" countries. Investors also show demand for it against the backdrop of rising rates on debt instruments in yuan.

The volume of trading in Chinese currency for tomorrow delivery on the Moscow Exchange on March 23 exceeded 139.7 billion rubles. This is only 100 million rubles. less than the record of the year set on 22 February. However, in contrast to the result of a month ago, the current volume of transactions exceeded the total volume of trading in US currency with delivery "today" and "tomorrow", which barely exceeded 130 billion rubles. At the end of February, the dollar trading volume was almost twice as high, about 240 billion rubles.

The dominance of the yuan intensified against the background of the tax period that started in Russia. “The growth in yuan trading volumes in the third decade of the month suggests that these are exporters' operations for the conversion of proceeds,” said Andrey Kochetkov, a leading analyst at Otkritie Investments.

According to Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, exporters could start converting yuan into rubles for payments to the budget, given the favorable exchange rate, which is at local highs. According to the head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank Vladimir Evstifeev, on March 28, companies will have to pay taxes for 2.9 trillion rubles.

Active sales of export earnings strengthened the position of the Russian currency. On Thursday, the dollar exchange rate at exchange trading, after a week-long break, fell below the level of 76 rubles/$ (to 75.71 rubles/$), and by the end of the day it closed at 76 rubles/$, which is more than 1 rub. lower than the previous day's close. The euro exchange rate fell by 56 kopecks during the day, to 82.64 rubles/€. The yuan lost 8 kopecks in price per day. and dropped to 11.1 RUB/CNY. “Without the presence of exporters with the sale of foreign currency, the ruble could hardly demonstrate such a strengthening even within the framework of speculative strategies,” Mr. Evstifeev believes.

The increase in the share of the Chinese currency in exchange trading has been occurring in the past 12 months due to Russia's refusal from the currencies of "unfriendly" countries, a decrease in trade with them and the transition to national currencies in settlements with "friendly" countries. At the same time, the volume of trade with China increased by almost a third last year and exceeded $190 billion.

As the Bank of Russia reported, a year ago, the share of the yuan in payments for exports did not exceed 0.5%, at the beginning of this year, the share of the yuan accounted for 16%. The daily sales of the yuan under the fiscal rule also contribute to the volume of yuan trading.

However, in March, the Bank of Russia daily sells Chinese currency for 5.4 billion rubles. against 8.9 billion rubles. a month earlier. In addition, interest in the yuan from private investors is actively growing, which is facilitated by higher rates on bank deposits in Chinese currency (see Kommersant on March 7) and corporate bonds (see Kommersant on March 16). “Russian banks offer yuan deposits at rates up to 2.6% per annum, which is lower than the key annual rate in China, which is 3.65%, but significantly higher than the rates that were last fall. Russian companies are actively issuing local bonds in yuan at 3–4.5% per annum,” notes Mikhail Vasiliev.

The course announced by the heads of the Russian Federation and China to increase the share of yuan in the foreign trade of the Russian Federation will inevitably increase interest in the Chinese currency. The de-dollarization policy pursued by the Bank of Russia also makes its contribution. “This week, the Central Bank announced that from April 1 it will differentiate the required reserve ratios for banks depending on the type of currency: the ratios for the currencies of “unfriendly” countries will increase, “friendly” ones will decrease (see “Kommersant” dated March 22)” - says Mikhail Vasiliev. Given the fact that China has begun to promote trade in yuan with other countries, experts expect a transition to settlements in yuan with third countries. “Settlements under foreign trade contracts in yuan with other countries are possible, but this is a more routine process, which will be the faster, the stronger the sanctions pressure on the Russian Federation,” Vladimir Evstifeev notes.

Vitaly Gaidaev



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