Analysts expect a reduction in railcar production in 2025
Car manufacturers will finish this year with a plus by 2023, having delivered 66–71 thousand cars. But, Rollingstock Agency predicts, in 2025 the output will decrease to 53–62 thousand units and until 2030 it will increase only if the situation on the commodity markets is most favorable and the situation on the network improves. Other analysts emphasize the importance of the key rate and the slow-moving factor in stimulating purchases that are irrational from a cost-benefit perspective but justifiable in the context of transport security.
Rollingstock Agency (RSA) presented a forecast for the supply of cars to the Russian Railways network until 2030. Three scenarios are based on different assessments of the future state of the transportation process on the railway network and the situation of the main product groups: hydrocarbons, fertilizers, grain, etc.
In all scenarios, high demand for Russian fertilizers is assumed to remain high; in the neutral and pessimistic scenarios, it will be complicated by increased competition on the world market, and in the latter, by the introduction of sanctions. In the global hydrocarbon markets, in a neutral scenario, the status quo is expected to be maintained; in a positive scenario, demand growth and price recovery, as well as logistical problems for competitors, are expected. The negative scenario involves a decline in demand and prices, further complication of access to foreign markets and restrictions on exports. In the grain market, the positive scenario involves high demand and high yields, the negative scenario – sanctions on Russian grain and low yields from 2027. In the building materials market, in a positive scenario, a revival in demand is expected due to the launch of new large-scale infrastructure projects, which will not happen in the neutral and negative scenarios. In the metal markets, under a positive scenario, high domestic demand and a recovery in exports are expected from 2025, and under a negative scenario, a recovery in supplies after 2027 and low domestic demand. The dynamics of the timber market will depend on the pace of development of timber processing enterprises and the availability of export subsidies.
The state of the transportation process in a positive scenario assumes maintaining the current quality of work and improving after 2025. In neutral, quality will fall and recover by the end of the 2020s, in negative, it will drop sharply in the coming years and stabilize in the future.
All three scenarios assume that in 2024 the supply of cars to the network will increase relative to 2023, but the size of the growth depends on the scenario - from 3.7%, to 66.4 thousand units, up to 10%, to 70.6 thousand. All the scenarios assume a noticeable increase in the supply of gondola cars and petroleum tanks (by 34.8–42.7% and 28.1–46.2%, respectively). In the hopper segment, it is expected that demand for grain hoppers will continue to grow, but there will be a sharp, 44–53%, decline in the supply of mineral hoppers, which will result in an overall decline in the segment of 4.3–10.3%.
In 2025, the supply of new cars to the network is projected to decline by 12.6–20%, to 53.1–61.7 thousand units. The decline will be recorded in many types of rolling stock, with the deepest decline in the segment of grain carriers - by 64-69.9%, as well as covered cars - by 27.4-41.6%. A slight increase - within 3.9% - is expected in the supply of gondola cars.
In the future, until 2030, output growth is envisaged only in a positive scenario. In 2025–2027, the volume of supplies may increase by 6.3% by 2021–2023, to 186.4 thousand units, in 2028–2030 - by 1.4% by 2024–2026, to 188.9 thousand . things. The neutral and negative scenarios assume a decline reaching 9% in 2025–2027 and 4% in 2028–2030. In the negative scenario, only gondola cars show stable growth in both periods, the production of which is expected to be 83.8 thousand and 92.4 thousand units in the corresponding three-year periods.
Deputy General Director of IPEM Vladimir Savchuk says that by the end of 2024, car production is progressing at a pace that implies a result of no less than 72 thousand. By 2025, he expects production at the level of 65–68 thousand units, but only if the Central Bank rate is not increased. The key rate is the determining factor in the car building industry for the coming years, the expert says. According to him, now investment demand has greatly contracted, expensive cars do not pay for themselves, most purchases are dictated by the needs of transport security from cargo owners and the need to provide cars at loading points for operators. For a longer period, demand will be determined by the situation with the movement of cars on the network, Mr. Savchuk believes: so far it is not showing signs of improvement in the near future, however, if the network “goes well” in the future, the demand for new cars will decrease significantly.
The head of Infoline-Analytics, Mikhail Burmistrov, believes that in 2024, given the likelihood of a key rate increase to 20%, one should adhere to conservative expectations for the production of cars - within 70 thousand. But in 2025, he expects a less sharp drop than RSA. Precisely because the situation on the network is deteriorating, fleet purchases will increase, dictated not by the profitability of the operation, but by the transport safety of shippers and the need to remove cargo, the expert believes. He also notes the strengthening of industrial inflation and the growth of tariffs of natural monopolies, which partly compensate for the high prices for rolling stock and their so far limited correction.
